Building our Nation's Resilience: Towards a Five-Year Prediction of Climate
NOAA's current seasonal climate forecast of long term mean temperature and total precipitation extends for 13 months using factors such as ENSO, MJO, NAO, PDO, trends, soil moisture and snow anomalies, statistical tools, and CFS as predictors. Although skill in such forecasts is limited, there are multiple reasons to seek to extend forecasts to longer lead times, and in the least, developing official products that could provide insights to climate states on timescales out to five years. In addition, traditional meteorological measures of skill may not reflect the value of the information to customers.
In this paper, we will summarize requirements collected from selected US decision makers on their need for an extended product suite, in particular, on the 2-5 year timescale, and the types of products that would be useful. We will also discuss the levels of skill that would make extended forecast information actionable by stakeholders.