Ionospheric Forecast During Sudden Stratospheric Warming Using the IDEA Model

During sudden stratospheric warming (SSW), the large-scale atmospheric circulation in the stratosphere undergoes dramatic changes, which in turn affect the ionosphere through changes in tidal and other atmospheric waves, and possibly other mechanisms. Recent progress in coupled whole-atmosphere/ionosphere modeling has just enabled forecasting of the coupled system from first principles. In this talk, we present some results of the coupled atmosphere-ionosphere prediction during several recent SSW events. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the feasibility for the coupled atmosphere-ionosphere prediction using a prototype IDEA model, i.e., the whole atmosphere model (WAM) coupled with an ionospheric model, in conjunction with the WAM data assimilation system (WDAS). The coupled IDEA model has been recently updated to a new version of the WAM model and data assimilation system.

The IDEA model has produced a successful medium-range prediction of the January 2009 SSW during solar minimum and quiet geomagnetic conditions. Recent SSWs in January 2012 and January 2013 occurred during different levels of solar activity and geomagnetic conditions. This study tests the predictive capability of the coupled system for different SSWs and during different solar and geomagnetic conditions.