Ensemble Forecast Systems and MOS (Invited Presentation)
Developing a reliable and accurate ensemble MOS product, however, proved to be theoretically challenging, computationally intensive, and data intensive. In 2006, Bob Glahn formed a team within MDL to develop the product we would eventually name Ensemble Kernel Density MOS (EKDMOS). The team quickly learned that they faced twin challenges--the creation of accurate and reliable probabilistic forecasts and the development of appropriate forecast verification techniques.
This talk will review the workings of EKDMOS, its predecessor, enhancements that have been developed over the years, and the evolution of the EKDMOS products themselves. This talk will also show how the EKDMOS techniques are contributing to the NWS's Model Blender project.