Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs): The Science and Strategic Implementation Plan for a Watch/Warning Paradigm Change

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Tuesday, 6 January 2015: 2:15 PM
221A-C (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Lans P. Rothfusz, NOAA, Norman, OK; and T. M. Smith and C. D. Karstens

Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs), is a holistic concept conceived by the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) in conjunction with the National Weather Service (NWS) to focus and direct next-generation science, technology and tools for forecasting environmental hazards on scales from days to minutes. In short, it proposes a next-generation watch/warning paradigm for the U.S. and is an outgrowth of NOAA's Weather Ready Nation initiatives.

In the early summer of 2014, NSSL and the NWS convened a workshop in Norman, OK to begin identifying and collecting a list of activities necessary to move the NWS from its current, product-centric, deterministic watch/warning paradigm to a probabilistic hazard information paradigm proposed in FACETs. A diverse “Development Team” of partners, stakeholders and NOAA leadership participated in the workshop and identified issues, concerns, challenges, opportunities, and ideas to be included in the Science and Strategic Implementation Plan (SSIP). The SSIP is to be the comprehensive “master plan” for research, development and implementation (RD&I) of FACETs. The workshop participants addressed each of the seven “facets” that comprise the concept – with particular emphasis on social and behavioral science issues that will arise from a fundamental change in the nation's watch/warning practices. The key recommendations from that workshop, and the resulting FACETs-enabling strategies contained in the SSIP, will be presented.