Observing System Simulation Experiments to evaluate the potential impact of proposed observing systems on hurricane prediction

Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) are an important tool for evaluating the potential impact of proposed new observing systems, as well as for evaluating trade-offs in observing system design, and in developing and assessing improved methodology for assimilating new observations. Extensive OSSEs have been conducted at NASA/ GSFC and NOAA/AOML over the last three decades. These OSSEs determined correctly the quantitative potential for several proposed satellite observing systems to improve weather analysis and prediction prior to their launch, evaluated trade-offs in orbits, coverage and accuracy for space-based wind lidars, and were used in the development of the methodology that led to the first beneficial impacts of satellite surface winds on numerical weather prediction. In this paper, we summarize early applications of global OSSEs to hurricane track forecasting, and new experiments using both global and regional models. These experiments are aimed at determining (1) the potential impact of unmanned aerial systems, (2) the relative impact of alternative concepts for space-based lidar winds, and (3) the relative impact of alternative concepts for polar and geostationary hyperspectral sounders.