Ensemble Model Visualization and Decision Support Tools with Python
Several types of plots encourage probabilistic rather than deterministic thinking: probability of exceedance, ensemble mean / spread, spaghetti, and plume diagrams. Visualizations are demonstrated in the context of understanding the predictability of winter storms for the Northeastern US. A collaboration between Penn State and National Weather Service State College has made real-time plots available for forecasting applications via a web portal. Finally, the students develop decision support tools enabling a user to make an actionable decision based on a probabilistic forecast in a variety of applications, including assessing weather hazards and planning outdoor activities.