Numerical Simulations of Landfalls of Hurricane Sandy (2012) and Rita (2005): Sensitivity to Initial Conditions
It is found that the numerical simulations of Hurricane Sandy (2012) and Rita (2005) are sensitive to the initial conditions and forecast lead time. Discrepancies are found in various experiments in terms of hurricane landfall times and locations. The intensity and structures of the hurricanes also vary in different experiments.
Further diagnoses are conducted to compare the key atmospheric variables in the varied initial conditions in order to investigate the reasons that lead to the large discrepancies in the forecasts. In addition, for some cases, results are also compared with those simulations generated from the Hurricane WRF (HWRF) model in order to obtain additional insight on the effects of model uncertainties when compared with the impact of initial uncertainties in prediction of landfalling hurricanes. Finally, data assimilation experiments are performed to confirm major findings from this study.