Ensemble Methods and Data Assimilation

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Wednesday, 7 January 2015: 1:30 PM
229A (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Brian R. Hunt, University of Maryland, College Park, MD

Ensemble forecasting, implemented at NCEP in 1992 under the leadership of Eugenia Kalnay, assesses the growth of uncertainty in a forecast model without linearizing the model. I will discuss broader application of ensemble methods as alternatives to derivative-based methods, and describe how this core idea has guided the development of ensemble data assimilation methods with Eugenia Kalnay and other colleagues at the University of Maryland.