Development of a Black Ice Prediction Model for Emergency Preparedness and Response
This presentation focuses on the meteorologically related tasks within the project. Through extensive literary review, a foundation of knowledge on black ice formation resulting from hoar frost and frozen precipitation was developed. Additionally, data from the Oklahoma Mesonet and Oklahoma Automatic Surface Observation Station (ASOS) networks spanning between the years 2000-2012 were analyzed for documented cases of freezing fog, and a probabilistic model was developed to assist in the forecasting of this phenomenon. This probabilistic model was verified using Mesonet and ASOS data from January 2013 to the present. A Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model was developed through the combination of the hierarchical system for hoar frost and frozen precipitation related black ice formation with the probabilistic model for freezing fog related black ice formation. The NWP model utilizes the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) output from the National Weather Service for prognostic output, and analyzes current Mesonet and ASOS data for analytic output. A team at Oklahoma State University will incorporate the NWP model output into a publicly accessible GIS mapping system to assist Emergency Management and media personnel, along with the general public, in deciphering locations under risk for black ice formation. This collaborative effort will enhance the ability of Emergency Management personnel to visualize and respond to winter weather related roadway impacts.