Assessing the Predictive Skill of WRF Lightning Threat Proxies for the California Dry Lightning Outbreak of June 21, 2008
In this project we are using the NAM-initialized WRF-ARW model to simulate the event, and determine the extent to which it could have been better forecast the day before (e.g., with different initializations, choice of physics etc.) Simulated maximum reflectivity (mdbZ) is compared with lightning strike observations for verification. We also explore the usefulness of lightning forecast proxies from model variables in dry lightning events. These proxies include graupel flux across certain isotherms, vertically-integrated ice, and elevated CAPE.