Statistical Post Processing for US Navy Ship Routing (Invited Presentation)

It has been demonstrated that an operational system to route US Navy ships could save the Department of Defense on the order of $150M/yr in fuel costs. The Naval Research Laboratory Marine Meteorology Division is implementing a routing guidance system that optimizes fuel subject to the constraint of ship safety. Experiments have shown that a) routes are most sensitive to forecasts of waves and winds, b) ensemble forecasts adds value, and c) statistical post processing of winds and waves adds value. NRL has developed and implemented a Lagrangian-based post-processing system for winds and waves that has proven to be superior to Eulerian-based methods for ocean conditions. NRL is also exploring the relative merits of using post-processed waves directly vice using the waves produced by forcing the operational wave model with post-processed winds. Results and future directions will be discussed.