An Evaluation of Applying Ensemble Data Assimilation to an Antarctic Mesoscale Model
We test the hypothesis that the application of A-DART improves the AMPS-3DVAR estimate of the atmosphere. We perform a test using a one-month period from 21 September - 21 October 2010 and find comparable results to both AMPS-3DVAR and the Global Forecasting System (GFS). In particular, we find a strong cold model bias near the surface and a warm model bias at upper-levels, which is shown from the analysis increment. Investigation of the surface bias reveals strongly biased land-surface observations while the warm bias at upper-levels is a potential circulation bias from the model warming too rapidly aloft over the continent. Increasing quality control of surface observations and assimilating polar-orbiting satellite data are expected to alleviate these issues in future tests.