Forecast accuracy associated with high impact weather events over the western United States downstream of extratropically transitioning tropical cyclones
This study identifies several high impact weather events that took place in the western United States since January 2000. These events each occurred soon after the extratropical transition of a typhoon in the western North Pacific basin. The ability of the GEFS reforecast system to accurately predict each event is examined by calculating error between forecasts and analyses. In this presentation, we will show the ensemble system's ability to predict high impact events as well as investigate the physical mechanisms associated with both accurate and inaccurate forecasts.