Evaluating forecast accuracy of tropical cyclones undergoing rapid size changes in the North Atlantic
In order to investigate the accuracy of TC size change forecasts, this study investigates the performance of the Global Ensemble Forecast System Reforecast (GEFS/R) dataset during periods of North Atlantic TC size changes. The GEFS/R was created by the Earth System Research Laboratory's Physical Sciences Division (ESRL/PSD) using the 2012 version of NCEP's Global Ensemble Forecasting System and consists of an 11-member ensemble of forecasts. In this presentation we will investigate the ability of the GEFS/R at different forecast lead times to accurately forecast size changes in three cases of TC size change. Using the ensemble members we will investigate the spread and uncertainty in the forecasts and examine the physical mechanisms associated with the forecast successes and failures.