Seasonal Antarctic station-based pressure reconstruction evaluation during the 20th century

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner
Sunday, 4 January 2015
Chad Goergens, Ohio University, Athens, OH; and R. L. Fogt

A key component in understanding climate variations across Antarctica, whether from the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) or from tropical teleconnections, is understanding changes in the atmospheric circulation. Yet, as with much of Antarctic data, researchers are left with neither long-term point (station) measurements of pressure variations across Antarctica, nor gridded pressure data from reanalyses or models that can be deemed reliable, given very little in situ data to constrain the solution across the high southern latitudes. This poster presents station-based reconstructions of 17 Antarctic manned stations by seasons. We employ principal component regression using midlatitude pressure observations as predictors individually for each Antarctic station. We are able to reconstruct the austral summer and winter pressure back until 1905 with fairly high skill, and modest skill in austral spring and autumn. The reconstruction skill along the Antarctic Peninsula is considerably higher in all seasons. A few reconstructions are used as examples to place the recent atmospheric circulation changes in a longer historical context, thereby highlighting the uniqueness of these recent changes. Future work includes conducting a spatial Antarctic-wide pressure reconstruction back until 1905.