Forecast Analysis and Comparison of the Operational GFS and GFS Parallel for a Winter Storm Case

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner
Sunday, 4 January 2015
Brooke A. Hagenhoff, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD; and D. L. Carlis

The operational Global Forecast System (GFS) is undergoing major upgrades to the physics, dynamics, and radiation schemes, and this research seeks to compare the prediction of precipitation type for a winter storm case in each model. Analyzing how well the operational and parallel each model performed in predicting precipitation type for the winter storm will be a valuable tool for forecasters to produce more accurate forecasts. In order to evaluate effectiveness, archived data from the forecast runs of both versions of the model were used in computing systems to create maps of forecasted precipitation types from a range of hours out from the event, compared to verification data from the event itself. This information will play a vital role in forecasting winter storms and providing information to the public in an effort to keep them safe.