Definition of Dry Thunderstorms for Use in Verifying SPC Fire Weather Products
Results showed that by including environmental parameters into the classification process, an increase in the restrictiveness of the method was found. This meant that dry thunderstorm events were not defined in the observations in areas where dry thunderstorms were not forecast to occur. However, this improvement was often offset by increases in false alarms given the reduced number of observed events found within the outlook areas. Despite the aforementioned drawback, statistical analysis still showed that these more realistic approaches tended to outperform methods that only used lightning flash data and QPE. Finally, a neighborhood diagnosis was also pursued to ensure that isolated observed events were not considered in the verification, which more closely follows the coverage criteria used in SPC fire weather outlooks.