Sensitivity of rapid intensification in NCEP'S hurricane weather and research (HWRF) model

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Sunday, 4 January 2015
Lauren Carter, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL; and V. Tallapragada and C. Kieu

Handout (6.0 MB)

Forecasting rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) is extremely difficult and remains a high priority for operational forecasters around the world. The National Center for Environmental Prediction's hurricane weather and research (HWRF) model has become one of the most successful high-resolution dynamical models in forecasting periods of RI in typhoons in the northwestern Pacific basin. In this study, I have conducted several idealized experiments in which I tested the behavior of RI in the HWRF model based on changing initial maximum tangential velocity and initial radius of maximum winds. I then went further by discussing the societal implications the improvement of this model would have for those affected by these catastrophic storms by discussing HWRF's overall performance in the northwestern Pacific basin in the 2013 season, and focused specifically on super typhoons Usagi and Haiyan as case studies.