J14.4 Effect of Model Resolution on Prediction of Space Weather Parameters

Tuesday, 12 January 2016: 2:15 PM
Room 352 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Michael Wiltberger, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and E. J. Rigler

Numerical prediction of space weather can be done with numerical models capable of wide range of resolutions. Using the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry (LFM) global magnetohydrodynamic magnetosphere-ionosphere simulation we examine the impact of model resolution on a range of parameter important to space weather including; location of the magnetopause, strength and structure of the cross polar cap potential (CPCP), layout of the field aligned currents (FAC), and ground magnetic field response. We conduct the analysis of the LFM response using simulations for interaction of the geospace system during the Whole Heliosphere Interval (WHI). This period covers an entire solar rotation and includes to high-speed stream intervals. The LFM simulation is repeated for the entire WHI at three different model resolutions with the number of cells in each computational direction being doubled. In order to analyze the impact of model resolution of the prediction of space weather parameters we bin the results by solar wind and IMF conditions. We are then able to construct average patterns of the CPCP and FAC currents that can be compared with observations and empirical models. With the ground magnetometer response and magnetopause locations we are able to compute a variety of metrics to directly quantify the impact of model resolution on forecast results.
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