Weather Uncertainty in All Phases of Aviation Decisions

The FAA has a keen interest in understanding and benefiting from uncertainty information inherent in aviation weather observations and forecasts. Research sponsored by the FAA's Aviation Weather Research Program (AWRP) and the Weather Technology in the Cockpit Program (WTIC) is not only attempting to improve the value of uncertainty in weather products and briefings, but also address the even more complex challenge of how various users across the aviation spectrum understand and apply uncertainty information in their specific decision environments. Whether they are flight dispatchers planning oceanic flights, Air Traffic Managers issuing traffic flow restrictions, or GA pilots making tactical adjustments, uncertainty associated with weather information plays an inherent role in each decision. This presentation will:

• Highlight some of AWRP's past research regarding uncertainty definitions and user biases,

• Review results from the Uncertainty Research Evolution Plan (REP), which is used by AWRP to help select and prioritize research,

• Detail WTIC sponsored research regarding pilot decisions at more tactical response times, and

• Take a preliminary look at other FAA sponsored research regarding the incorporation of weather into emerging Air Traffic Control decision support tools.