Africa Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis: Legacy and Future Plans

Established in 2002, AMMA has both transformed our basic understanding of the physics of West African climate, and established programmes within Africa which are developing practical tools for decision-makers. AMMA is built around 3 objectives: (i) to improve our understanding of the West African monsoon and its predictability, (ii) to relate it to societal issues like food security, water resources and public health, and (iii) to integrate AMMA research with prediction and decision-making activities. We have created robust and long-standing research collaborations between African and international partners, spanning all of the physical and socio-economic questions, involving approximately 250 scientists and more than 100 PhD students from Africa. Illustrations of success in applying new knowledge and observations for the needs of African society include; (i) future crop yield projections based on temperature and rainfall changes (included in the latest IPCC chapter on Africa), (ii) the production of a monthly monitoring and forecasting bulletin of the cropping season by AGRHYMET (http://www.agrhymet.ne/bulletin.html), currently being tested in the context of climatic insurance products, (iii) climatically-based meningitis early warning bulletins disseminated by the national weather service of Burkina Faso and supported by the World Health Organization, and (iv) water resource scenarios developed for National Actions Plans for Adaptation to Climate Change in Burkina Faso, Benin, Mali, Niger and Senegal. While AMMA still recognizes the importance of continuing to improve our fundamental understanding and the need for field campaigns (e.g. PREFACE and DACCIWA are ongoing); phase 2 of AMMA is giving, through new projects such as "AMMA-2050", greater emphasis to the integration work (objective 3) and linking prediction to decision-making activity.