3.6 Solar Cycle Influence on the North Atlantic

Thursday, 14 January 2016: 2:45 PM
Room 343 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Lesley J. Gray, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; and M. Andrews, J. Knight, and A. A. Scaife

There has been a long history of research suggesting an 11-year solar cycle influence at the Earth's surface. One mechanism for solar influence is via the stratosphere, through UV solar irradiance variability and its impact on stratospheric temperature and circulation. While the resulting globally-averaged signal at the surface is extremely small, certain regions show a much larger signal. We focus in this study on the impact of the 11-year solar cycle on the North Atlantic. A regression analysis of the Hadley Centre mean sea level and sea surface temperature observational datasets (1870-2010) shows that the response is particularly significant at 3-4 year lags. Further analysis of the solar signals in various other e.g. reanalysis datasets will be described. A mechanism for this lag involving atmosphere-ocean interaction has been proposed and experiments using the Hadley Centre climate model will also be described. -2015-->
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