3.4 Observational Analysis of Flash Flood Events in North Texas

Monday, 11 January 2016: 4:30 PM
Room 245 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Amanda J. Schroeder, NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, Fort Worth, TX; and D. Cavanaugh, T. Ryan, and J. Dunn

Flash flooding is a multi-disciplinary and complex forecast problem. It is also routinely one of the most deadly weather-related hazards in the United States (U.S.), which demonstrates a continued need for additional hydrometeorological research related to forecasting these hazardous events. Building upon previous literature, we have conducted a synergistic study to examine the relevance and potential flash flood predictive value of various hydrometeorological variables available from rawinsonde data. Using flash flood warnings and reports, as well as rawinsonde data from the National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Office (WFO) in Fort Worth, Texas from 2007, the authors examined the predictive insight for various atmospheric parameters including: precipitable water anomaly, height of the -10 C level, and wind shear. Additionally, the authors aim to demonstrate the possibility of the development of an easily calculated parameter that could be applied to future rawinsonde data and aide forecasters in this challenging forecast problem.
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