Ionospheric Effects of Strong El Niņo Southern Oscillation Conditions

The current prediction for the occurrence of a very strong positive phase in the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in late 2015 has implications for weather around the entire planet. Furthermore, recent investigations show that ENSO-related changes in tropospheric water vapor and rainfall do drive extraordinary changes in the temperature and wind structure in the middle atmosphere, through the modification of the spectrum of atmospheric tides. Given that several components of the tidal spectrum can propagate into the thermosphere, ENSO-related changes at altitudes above the mesopause and into the ionosphere may be expected. We will show the ionospheric and thermospheric variations expected for El Niņo and La Niņa conditions. These efforts are enabled in part by modeling capabilities developed for the upcoming NASA Ionospheric Connection Explorer mission. This mission also carries remote thermosphere wind and temperature sensing capabilities that are based, in part, in the heritage of UARS measurements of the region.