The Optimal Meteorological Forecast System Project at Meteorological Services of Canada

The current Canadian forecast system was developed over 20 years ago considering a point approach : for surface observing sites a statistical post processing is applied to the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) output and these added value time series are seen as representing the main weather conditions a public forecast area. For the marine program, direct model output is considered as the in-situ observations are not available. Local effects over the forecast area are taken into account by introducing exceptions into the SCRIBE forecast system.

Over the years, the NWP suites have multiplied refined and become coupled and this approach by point in the forecast system is limiting an optimal use of these NWP. Several projects exist across the country to diagnose weather elements including severe weather from the different suites. Also, the operational community of forecasters are suggesting different ways to increase the use of NWP in the forecast system. This project will gather all the initiatives to gather all the fields generated and that are likely to become a full set of weather elements to represent the official forecast. This new database could feed the current forecast system as well as the warning system to be developed that will make use of met objects.