Thursday, 14 January 2016: 2:30 PM
Room 245 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
The Bering Sea Rule (BSR) has been shown to be an effective long range forecasting tool. One can find 8-14 day and monthly forecasts of temperature and precipitation through the Climate Prediction Center. However, there are no forecast tools for looking at the possibility of severe weather past mid-range forecasts, or about eight days courtesy of the Storm Prediction Center. Computer models are also not able to forecast effectively beyond the seven to 15 day range in the PNA region, as dynamic predictability diminishes severely. Utilizing three important data collection points in the Pacific and over the continental United States, and the Bering Sea Rule, forecasts that perform better than climatology can be obtained. Using autocorrelation and fourier analysis of the PNA Index, we find a strong 20 to 30 day oscillation that would correspond to the BSR. These statistical techniques also show some promise for the identification of potential severe weather events beyond the dynamic forecasting range. Thus these forecasts would be of interest to the government, energy, agriculture, and other sectors in identifying the potential for severe weather.
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