The Lagrangian FLEXPART dispersion model, which is offline coupled to WRF, is used to generate dispersion predictions based on meteorological data from the atmospheric ensemble. Dispersion model predicted air concentrations are compared with Dopptex one hour averaged air concentration measurements. A statistical analysis is completed to study the variation of dispersion prediction skill based on different WRF ensemble members and to assess what meteorological model factors contribute the most to spread in the dispersion results. In addition, we assess the impact of source and dispersion related parameter uncertainties on concentration spread and compare these findings to the scale of meteorological uncertainty on Dopptex dispersion results.
The project (14-ERD-006) was funded by the Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program at LLNL, and was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by LLNL under Contract DE-AC52-07NA2734. LLNL-ABS-675728