The Updated Effective Radiative Forcing of Major Anthropogenic Aerosols and Their Effects on Global Climate at Present and in the Future

The effective radiative forcing (ERF) due to anthropogenic aerosols defined in IPCC AR5 and their comprehensive climatic effects were simulated in this work. From 1850–2010, the total ERF of these anthropogenic aerosols was -2.49 W m-2, of which the aerosol-radiation interactive ERFari and aerosol-cloud interactive ERFaci were ~ -0.30 and -2.19 W m-2, respectively. From 1850–2010, anthropogenic aerosols brought about a decrease of ~ 2.53 K and ~ 0.20 mm day-1 in global annual mean surface temperature and precipitation, respectively. Surface cooling was most obvious over mid and high latitudes in the northern hemisphere. Precipitation change was most pronounced near the equator, with decreased and increased rainfall to the north and south of the equator, respectively. Cloud cover and water path were increased, especially in or near the source regions of anthropogenic aerosols. Experiments based on the RCP 4.5 given in IPCC AR5 shows the dramatic decrease in three anthropogenic aerosols in 2100 will lead to an increase of ~ 2.06 K and 0.16 mm day-1 in global annual mean surface temperature and precipitation, respectively, compared with those in 2010.