5.2 Extreme Weather Alerts for Wind Energy Forecasts

Tuesday, 12 January 2016: 1:45 PM
Room 346/347 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Kristin Larson, Global Weather Corporation, Boulder, CO; and B. Basarab, S. Motley, and R. L. Bigley

Handout (628.3 kB) Handout (630.4 kB)

To reduce damage during high wind events, wind turbines are designed to stop producing power, or “cut-out,” when wind speeds exceed a given threshold. These cut-out events often result in a sudden and dramatic decrease in power production, as the transition from near-maximum power output drops to zero when the turbine's operable wind speed is surpassed. This sudden loss of power creates significant energy imbalance issues on the electrical grid, highlighting the importance of accurate wind energy forecasts.  The Global Weather Corporation wind energy forecasts for Xcel Energy include alerts for extreme weather, including cut out events.  High wind speed forecasts and periods of wind speed cut outs are analyzed to determine the relative number of hits, false alarms, and misses. The expertise of Xcel Energy meteorologists and forecast results are used to set the alert levels for the forecasts. User forecast confidence is increased when the high wind speed alert is set intelligently.

Supplementary URL: http://www.globalweathercorp.com

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