J3.6 The Impact of the MJO and Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change

Wednesday, 13 January 2016: 12:00 AM
Room 346/347 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Eric S. Blake, NOAA/NCEP/NHC, Miami, FL; and P. J. Klotzbach

During the past few years, convectively coupled atmospheric Kelvin Waves (CCKWs) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) have become important tools for operational forecasters making tropical cyclone (TC) genesis forecasts. Because of how these waves modify the environment near a TC, it is tempting to think that these waves could significantly affect TC intensity change as well. However, many questions remain regarding these atmospheric waves as modulators of TC intensity change. While it could be potentially useful information to know the state of the MJO, or if a CCKW is nearing a system, quantifying the impact of these waves has been challenging. For example, a key question is whether the CCKWs are more relevant in certain phases of the MJO to help modulate TC intensity change. This study will investigate the potential use of these waves for TC intensity forecasting and look at some case studies.
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