Probability of Turbulence in the Aviation Weather Testbed

The Aviation Weather Center (AWC) is tasked with the production of graphical AIRMETs to identify en-route hazards such as turbulence, icing, and ceiling and visibility, in order to fulfill NOAA's mission of maximizing air safety and efficiency. The Aviation Weather Testbed has used ensemble systems for generation of probabilities of clear air turbulence (CAT) forecasts and verification of those forecasts to provide added support to AWC forecasters. These probabilities are comprised of multiple diagnostics across multiple ensemble members. This has been applied across both the Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) model and the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). This presentation will demonstrate the experimental use, evaluation, and training for operational forecasters at the AWC. With continual model upgrades, including changes to the SREF members and physics cores, verification and evaluation is updated.