An initial, proof-of-concept CWAP algorithm was previously developed and validated by comparing observed flight trajectories to CWAP derived from observed weather. The CWAP showed appreciable skill as a predictor of weather-avoiding trajectories in en route airspace. Many upgrades and enhancements have been made to the original algorithm to reduce its complexity and increase its flexibility without reducing its skill. Actual flight trajectory information was obtained and used in verifying the CWAP boundaries for the revised algorithm.
Techniques to improve CWAP forecasts were used and analyzed to evaluate forecast accuracy and uncertainty. Time-lagged ensembles of forecast CWAPs were created using forecast weather information from the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) and the Consolidated Storm Prediction Algorithm (CoSPA). Three to four forecast lead time ensembles were created with lead times ranging from 15 minutes to 8 hours. These ensembles as well as individual forecasts were then compared to CWAPs of coincidental observed weather to assess the accuracy of CWAP forecasts and forecast ensembles. This method generated a basis for assessing the tradeoffs of using different WAF and forecast settings for TBO applications.
CWAP improvements and enhancements as well as the ensuing validations and applications will be discussed.
This work was sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) under Air Force Contract FA8721-05-C-0002. Opinions, interpretations, conclusions, and recommendations are those of the authors and are not necessarily endorsed by the United States Government.