Web-based Learning: Interpreting and Communicating Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Guidance

This presentation will highlight approaches to using probabilistic guidance and appropriate ways to both interpret and communicate it to emergency managers with consistency. These approaches are used in several online, interactive, self-paced lessons about the two main tropical cyclone hazards - storm surge and winds.

Two years ago, the COMET Program came together with a group of NWS meteorologists recognized for having significant hurricane operations experience. The purpose was to create the Tropical Professional Development Series (PDS). In it, specific tasks were identified which forecasters need to perform in order to meet the needs of emergency managers and other decision-makers whenever tropical cyclones threaten coastal areas. The PDS served as a foundation to develop the online lessons mentioned above.

The storm surge hazard series introduces forecasters and emergency managers to basic concepts about storm surge and tide, datums, probabilistic forecasts, and the appropriate way to use and communicate their guidance for decision support. The wind hazard series introduces them to probabilistic guidance for determining the onset of tropical storm and/or hurricane force winds for a particular location, the likely period of peak winds, as well as total risk. In the process, learners also appreciate the uncertainty inherent in tropical cyclone hazard forecasts and learn how to properly use related guidance.