Using Satellite Aerosol Observations for Improving Global Aerosol Forecasting and Data Assimilation System at NCEP

A module for tropospheric aerosols (the Goddard Chemistry, Aerosol, Radiation, and Transport model, GOCART) has been implemented into Global Forecast System (GFS) at National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The new system enables NCEP to produce global short-range chemical weather forecasts, and provide lateral boundary conditions for regional air quality forecast system, create aerosol information needed for various applications (such as atmospheric corrections in satellite retrievals). In addition, the inclusion of prognostic aerosols in GFS provides a first step toward an aerosol data assimilation capability at NCEP. Since GFS is the AGCM of NCEP's Climate Forecast System (CFS), the new aerosol element will allow NCEP to explore aerosol-chemistry-climate interactions in the climate system.

Aerosol observations from satellites have been used extensively for developing and improving the global aerosol system at NCEP. Specifically, space-born aerosol observations have been used routinely to evaluate and monitor model forecasts. Biomass burning emissions estimated from multiple satellites have been developed via NESDIS/STAR-NASA/GSFC-NCEP collaboration and is being ingested into the global aerosol forecasting system. In addition, the efforts are underway to develop aerosol data assimilation system using satellite observations. This presentation will provide an overview on current forecasting capability and ongoing assimilation development work with the focus on satellite observation utilization.