J6.2 An Investigation of Intensity Change Mechanisms Associated with Intense Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Hurricanes

Wednesday, 25 January 2017: 4:15 PM
606 (Washington State Convention Center )
Jordan L. Rabinowitz, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and A. R. Lupo

It has been well-documented that unexpected rapid intensification of tropical cyclones (TC) can have devastating long-term impacts on coastal regions and societies across different parts of the planet.  Over the past six decades, there has been a substantial increase in research devoted to understanding the dynamics and mechanisms presumed to be responsible for facilitating rapid intensification associated with TCs.  Recent work has provided substantial evidence that strengthening TC secondary circulations are positively correlated with episodes of rapid intensification.  However, details pertaining to the strength of TC secondary circulations and the impacts of interannual ENSO/MJO variability have not been well-documented.  The nucleus of this research is evaluating factors including low-level convergence, upper-level divergence, maximum deep-layer shear, lowest minimum central pressure, and eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) frequency.  The goal is to investigate how these components collectively influenced TCs which had at least one rapid intensification period and the duration of time during which a given storm maintained its maximum intensity.  The secondary goal is to assess how results from this work can be used in an effort improve the forecasting of rapidly intensifying TCs; particularly those which bear legitimate landfall threats.
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