Quantifying the Risk for Outbreaks of Zika Virus in the Continental United States (Invited Presentation)

Over the past year, Zika virus has been recognized as a major threat to human health in the Americas due to its rapid emergence and its potential to cause birth defects in pregnant women. To date, over 40 countries in the western hemisphere have confirmed transmission by local vectors, including the U.S. and Mexico, with more than 5,500 local Zika virus infections detected in U.S. states and territories. Of these, only a small number have been found in the continental U.S., despite the fact that > 1,800 travelers have returned with infections acquired in other areas. Published estimates of vector limits and Zika's ecological niche have provided early insight into the virus's potential range. In this presentation, we use mechanistic models to explore the potential scale of Zika outbreaks in the continental U.S., informed by climate and real-world surveillance data.