Tuesday, 24 January 2017
4E (Washington State Convention Center )
About half of the Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) and the majority of hurricanes form from African easterly wave (AEW) disturbances that come off of the West African coast. However, not all disturbances of similar intensity and amplitude serve as a precursor to TCs. Our case study shows that some wave disturbances of similar intensity do not have a similar role in TC initiation. In this study we investigate a pre-Depression 14 (TD14) AEW disturbance in September 2003 and a pre-tropical storm Iris in September 1989. These two AEWs had similar intensity and amplitude as they propagate into the Atlantic. However, their effects tend to be different. We will present results that will highlight potential mechanisms that shed light as to why similar intensity disturbances end up having different outcomes. Our results are based on Weather Research & Forecast (WRF) model and the European Centre Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) reanalysis data.
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