Urban Multi-Scale Environmental Predictor (UMEP): A New Tool to Deliver City Based Climate Services

The spatial variability of urban climates, both within and between cities, is well documented. One purpose of urban land surface models (ULSM) is to simulate this spatial variability.  City based climate services (CBCS) have been developed for a range of applications (disaster response, day-to-day operations, human health, city design and planning) and for an array of high impact weather/climate elements (rainstorms, typhoons, thunderstorms, strong winds, fog, haze, heatwaves etc.). Multiple agencies are involved, with varying levels of engagement by end-users. Benefits of the CBCS are understood to be multiple: reduction of accidents, better allocation of resources, advanced warnings, improved health of vulnerable (young and elderly) populations, urban safety etc., delivered to a wide range of end-users. Although CBCS are valued and there is a strong commitment to their use and development, it is widely recognised that there are important areas for development, notably in the spatial/temporal scale of forecasts (weather and climate) and the ability to undertake multi-criteria analysis (i.e. to simultaneously consider potentially competing impacts across different applications and CBCS).

This presentation will introduce a new modelling tool, UMEP, designed to enhance the spatial resolution of CBCS specifically in China, drawing on ULSMs, and knowledge of existing CBCS. Tools such as this, once appropriately assessed for an area, can be used for a broad range of applications.