Evaluating the ProbSevere Model Over the Atlantic Ocean Using WDSS-II

Maritime and aviation interests are particularly vulnerable to intense off-shore thunderstorms, but much remains to be learned regarding their occurrence and distribution.  The ProbSevere model statistically integrates information from satellites, radars, and numerical weather prediction models to forecast the probability of severe weather within a developing thunderstorm over the Contiguous United States (CONUS).  The lack of radar coverage over the ocean limits the applicability of ProbSevere offshore, so this study will use products derived from geostationary satellites, global forecasting system model data, and the Global Lightning Dataset (GLD360) to investigate the expansion of the ProbSevere Model to regions outside CONUS (OCONUS).  Using the Warning Decision Support System-Integrated Information (WDSS-II) in conjunction with the ProbSevere model, this study will develop a database and identify cases in which airplanes and ships were impacted by severe thunderstorms.  After identifying specific cases of interest, the study will evaluate the applicability of a ProbSevere approach over the oceans.  Specific storm features will be tracked using WDSS-II derived products to characterize storms based on their intensity.  These visualizations and products aim to advise the aviation and maritime industries as well as federal agencies such as the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on the real-time threat posed by thunderstorms over the oceans.