Societal Benefits of Reduction in Hurricane Forecast Intensity Error

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is responsible for issuing official track and intensity forecasts for tropical cyclones (TC). As of March 2016, NHC official error trends showed a steady reduction in forecast track error over the past ten years; however, there is no evidence of a similar reduction in forecast intensity error over this same period.

Since further improvements in TC intensity forecasts are likely to require additional effort and investment, policymakers may well ask how those costs compare to the societal benefits that would result. The Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) has stated that “forecasts of higher accuracy and greater reliability (i.e., user confidence) are expected to lead to improved public response, including savings of life and property.” Unfortunately, it is difficult to quantify these benefits. Moreover, much of the analysis that does exist either focuses on forecast track errors or else does not distinguish between reduced track and intensity errors as sources of benefit.

This presentation reports the results of an analysis conducted in 2016 to address this issue. The analysis was sponsored by NOAA’s Office of Maritime and Aircraft Operations (OMAO) as part of a larger study effort: an analysis of alternatives (AoA) for replacement of NOAA’s WP-3D aircraft in 2030.

Using a value chain model, the authors propose a method for representing the effect of a given forecast intensity error on the probability that a storm’s category, on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale, will be incorrectly predicted, and on decisions, actions, and economic impacts that may result. Other benefit mechanisms are also explored.

The authors identify simplifying assumptions, explore the uncertainty associated with the resulting benefit estimates, and propose areas for further research that could reduce these uncertainties.