Using Derived Variables from Total Lightning to Support Aviation

The Aviation Weather Center uses a combination of high resolution model data, surface and upper-air observations, radar, and lightning data to produce synoptic scale convective decision support and nowcasts, in the form of SIGMETs, to support enroute flight operations and air traffic planning.  The primary source of operational lightning data has been an outdated set of Cloud-to-ground observations over the US detected from ground based sensors.  Recent evolution in lightning sensing has allowed new development.  One such effort focuses on creating aviation specific translations.  A correlation between lightning density and the height of the maximum radar echo top has been exploited using two ground-based total lightning datasets.  This correlation allows forecasters to view convection at a higher temporal update frequency than radar scans allow, providing better precision in identifying rapidly building or decaying high echo top storms.  Currently, in the Aviation Weather Testbed, this will be done at a 2 minute update cycle, with options for a higher frequency.  Current verification efforts show a mean bias between 0 and 3 kft for observed echo tops above 25 kft.