In the summer of 2016, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released “Risk Communication and Behavior: Best Practices and Research Findings.” The authors summarized key factors in communicating weather hazards such as flood and tropical cyclone as well as the messaging of general weather and forecasts.
The current project is designed to assess stakeholder needs for information about long-range precipitation patterns and to test alternative methods for communicating those projections. As such, the project addresses two key points made by NOAA (2016). First, a primary goal of risk communication is “to help people, communities, businesses, and government find and use the right information to understand risk and make smart decisions” (NOAA, 2016, p. 4). To this end, research should assess the needs of stakeholders and work with them to provide information that will be useful in their decision-making. Second, the report recommends testing messages and products with target audiences before they are disseminated more broadly. Information has little value if end-users do not comprehend its meaning.
A fundamental problem in communication is misunderstanding (Coupland, Weimann, & Giles, 1991), which is conceptualized as a discrepancy between the intended meaning of a message and the received meaning of that message (Edwards, Bybee, Frost, Harvey, & Navarro, 2016). Research has shown that factors including personality, sex and gender, emotional arousal, and situation influence the ways in which interlocutors interpret messages, which leads to discrepancies in how those messages are understood.
Misunderstanding creates problems in a variety of contexts including computer-mediated communication (Edwards et al., 2016), doctor-patient communication (e.g., Binder, Borné, Johnsdotter, Essén, 2012), intercultural communication (e.g., Banks, Ge, & Baker, 1991; Binder et al., 2012), and air safety (e.g., Howard, 2008). Communication about weather and climate is no exception (NOAA, 2016). The general public does not understand how to interpret probabilities associated with precipitation (Morrs, Deluth, & Lazo, 2009) nor is the cone of uncertainty used in hurricane forecasts thought to be well understood (Eosco, 2009).
In order to improve understanding of long-range seasonal precipitation projections, the current project takes a two-pronged approach. The first is to identify information that is needed or desired by stakeholders. The second is to test alternative approaches for communicating the information by comparing the Standardized Precipitation Index to an alternative format.
Results of an internet-based survey of water managers in Texas and Louisiana will be reported. The water managers include personnel who work with reservoirs in Texas, levee districts in Louisiana, or water and sewerage operations of selected medium and large cities in Texas and Louisiana. Results will describe the level of interest in long-range projections of precipitation. Additional results will address stakeholders’ ability to interpret graphs and charts about long-range projections accurately (actual comprehension) and their confidence in their interpretations (perceived comprehension). Results will enhance understanding of stakeholder engagement in the creation of messages and improve the messaging capability of a research team tasked with creating long-range precipitation projections.
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