Sea Ice Forecast Guidance from an Experimental Coupled Sea Ice-Ocean-Atmosphere Model

We present weather-scale (0-10 day) sea ice forecast examples, validation, and skill results from an experimental coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere model for 2015 and 2016.  The model is a mesoscale, limited-area, fully-coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean mixed-layer model, termed RASM-ESRL, that was developed from the larger-scale Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) architecture. RASM-ESRL includes the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) atmospheric model, Parallel Ocean Program (POP), Community Ice Model Version 5 (CICE5) and the NCAR Community Land Model.  The horizontal domain is limited to the Arctic, and all components are run with 10 km horizontal resolution. These components are coupled using a regionalized version of the CESM flux coupler (CPL7), which includes modifications important for resolving the sea ice pack’s inertial response to transient (i.e. weather) events.  The model is initialized with GFS atmosphere, satellite-derived sea ice analyses, and forced by 3-hourly GFS forecasts at the lateral boundaries.  

Experimental 5-day forecasts were run daily with RASM-ESRL from July through mid-November in 2015 and 2016.  These daily forecasts have been validated with observations of surface fluxes and vertical profiles of cloud ice and liquid at land sites, and with atmospheric and oceanic observations from intensive measurement campaigns in 2016 and 2016.  Experimental model output products are updated daily and posted to a public website which include forecast guidance, validation results, skill assessment and process study analyses graphics.  Collaboration with NWS Alaska Region Sea Ice Program has provided input into useful model product development and assessment of forecast skill.