Modeling of the Large-Scale Conditions That Favor Longer-Lived Mesoscale Convective Systems in the Midlatitudes

Organized mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) have large societal and economic impacts due to the extreme precipitation they produce. With climate change projected over the next few decades, a key research area is to investigate how MCSs change with climate warming, which may be related to both thermodynamical and dynamical changes. To date, challenges remain in understanding the large-scale environmental factors important for sustaining the longevity of MCSs, and hence how potential changes in large-scale circulation under global warming may influence MCSs and the associated heavy precipitation. In this study, the MCSs simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at convection permitting resolution in the U.S. Great Plains during warm seasons are evaluated against satellite and ground radar observations. Analyses of the composite meteorological conditions for short-lived and long-lived MCSs reveal a number of distinctive features and their interactions that are important to the longevity of the mesoscale organization.