Handout (3.7 MB)
Hurricanes, defined by a wind force >12 on the Beaufort scale (64 knots or 74 mph), threaten the Philadelphia area with some frequency – 24 times since 1866. The present study offers a Poisson model to predict the probability of a hurricane impacting my school, the Episcopal Academy, based on (a) the historic record of hurricanes in the Philadelphia area, and (b) the exacerbating effects of climate change, which are expected to increase the magnitude of severe weather events. The analysis uses data from the National Hurricane Center, part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The results suggest that there is a 55% probability that the Episcopal Academy will be impacted by a hurricane in the next five years. This awareness should motivate school leaders to better prepare for a severe weather event, thereby, lowering the risk of physical damage and lost learning time. This methodology could be used to examine other schools in the Philadelphia region and around the country.
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