The High Impact Weather Project: Promoting Co-Operative International Research to Increase Resilience to High Impact Weather

The Sendai framework called for better hazard early warning systems to reduce disaster impacts.  The World Meteorological Organization has launched a 10 year programme, High Impact Weather (HIWeather) to address the weaknesses in our capability to reduce the impacts of weather-related hazards through warnings. Advances in meteorology have radically improved the precision and accuracy of forecasting hazard-related weather in the past decade. Together with advances in coupling to land surface, atmospheric chemistry and ocean models, it is now possible to predict most weather-related hazards where before they could only be inferred in a qualitative sense.  Advances in ensemble prediction have also made it possible to produce meaningful quantitative probabilities in the last decade. Taking the next step of utilising vulnerability information to generate a quantitative risk assessment is now feasible, but very demanding and currently in its infancy. In some contexts there is evidence that these advances have resulted in increased trust in weather forecasts and warnings. Yet, in others, evidence of a lack of response to warnings, especially in disasters with many fatalities, has led to a questioning of the benefits of this research and recognition of the need to communicate information more effectively. Radical changes in the communication landscape in the past decade, especially the rise of social media, have created opportunities and threats that challenge traditional approaches to warning communication. Finally, the simultaneous growth of population, especially in urban areas, together with the occurrence of weather outside historical norms as a result of climate change, poses an increasing threat to communities around the world which demands that the best science is applied to improving the capability of warnings systems, especially in the developing world. The purpose of the HIWeather research programme is to promote cooperative international research to achieve a dramatic increase in resilience to high impact weather. This paper will present an overview of the HIWeather Project and outline current and future activities.