The Long and Short of Space Weather Predictions

As Solar Cycle 24 wanes we begin the anticipation of Solar Cycle 25. Much has been learned about predicting solar activity, especially with the data provided by SDO and STEREO. Short-term predictions of solar flares have benefited from both the new data and machine learning techniques. The arrival times of coronal mass ejections is a mid-range prediction whose accuracy has been improving, mostly due to a steady flow of data from SoHO, STEREO, and SDO. I will describe the need to continue these or similar data streams as the current satellites age and degrade. Long-term predictions of solar activity have benefited from helioseismic studies of the plasma flows in the Sun. While these studies have complicated the dynamo models by introducing more complex internal flow patterns, the models should become more robust  with the added information. But predictions made long before a sunspot cycle begins still rely on precursors. I will describe the prediction of the SODA polar field precursor method, which has accurately predicted the last three cycles, for Solar Cycle 25.