Ionospheric Weather from the Coupled Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM)-Ionosphere-Plasmasphere-Electrodynamics (IPE) Model toward NOAA Operational Space Weather Forecasting

The Ionosphere-Plasmasphere-Electrodynamics (IPE) model is a new, time dependent, three-dimensional model of ionosphere and plasmasphere recently developed through collaboration between University of Colorado, George Mason University, NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), NOAA Global Systems Division (GSD), NCAR HAO and NESII. It provides time dependent, global, three-dimensional plasma densities for nine ion species, electron and ion temperatures, and both parallel and perpendicular velocities of the ionosphere and plasmasphere. IPE reproduces not only the climatology of global TEC observations, but the model has also been applied to Space Weather events, such as Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSW) and geomagnetic storms. The model follows the storm time redistribution of the plasma density in the ionosphere and plasmasphere, including the dynamic evolution of the Storm Enhanced Densities (SEDs). SEDs are the main cause of the steep gradient in ionospheric electron density that severely impact navigation and communication. IPE has been coupled to Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM), a special configuration of the Global Forecast System (GFS), in order to respond to terrestrial weather. IPE has been included as a component of the NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) coupled system using the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) and National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) layer. In this presentation, an overview of the coupled WAM-IPE model development and current status is presented. Furthermore, the first results from the coupled WAM-IPE model is shown to demonstrate the impact of meteorological perturbations on the ionosphere. The presentation is summarized by the discussions on the challenges in the coupling effort toward the ultimate goal of transitioning to operations.