Identifying Stratospheric Air Intrusions and Associated Hurricane-Force Wind Events over the North Pacific Ocean

The Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) has relied on single-channel water vapor imagery to identify dry stratospheric air intrusions (SAIs) that may lead to rapid cyclogenesis and associated hurricane-force wind events over the Atlantic Ocean.  However, using the air mass RGB product on the current Meteosat-10 in preparation for the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite – R-series (GOES-R) will enable forecasters to quickly identify the SAIs. SAIs are confirmed and quantified using Ozone products developed by the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT), to measure ozone through the atmospheric column.  The SPoRT ozone products were initially based on the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on the NASA Aqua satellite, but has since been applied to the Cross-track Infrared Sounder/Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (CrIS/ATMS) on the Suomi-National Polar-orbiting Partnership S-NPP satellite, and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) on the Metop A/B satellites. Additionally, the NOAA Unique Combined Atmospheric Profiles (NUCAPS) products have been used to better quantify the air mass RGB displays.  The combination of these products has the potential to help forecasters more efficiently anticipate explosive intensification and the development of dangerous hurricane-force winds in maritime cyclones. Project results include qualitative and quantitative investigations of specific cases using the air mass and ozone products and comparison with the conventional single-channel water vapor products. Additionally, an instructional toolkit for OPC forecasters for using and interpreting the air mass and ozone products to better identify the potential for rapid cyclogenesis over the ocean is being developed.