2016-17 HRRRv3/HRRR-Ensemble Cloud and Wind Modeling/Assimilation Toward Increased Renewable Energy Penetration

Renewable (wind and solar) energy forecasting defines unique requirements for cloud and PBL forecasts from weather models.  Development of NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) 3km hourly updating model and parent 13km Rapid Refresh (RAP) models has been driven significantly by addressing these requirements to improve renewable energy penetration in the United States.   The HRRR/RAP development focuses attention on winds at 50-200m above ground level and clouds of small horizontal (below that resolvable by even the 3km HRRR) and vertical scale. 

While implementation of HRRRv2 and RAPv3 at NCEP occurs August 2016, ESRL/GSD has developed a new set of assimilation and modeling changes for HRRRv3 and RAPv4.  Improvements in boundary-layer assimilation and a variation/ensemble approach for cloud/hydrometeor assimilation have been developed already showing improvements in real-data tests.   The WFIP2 project has spawned effective further refinement to physics parameterizations for boundary-layer wind and subgrid-scale cloud prediction.   These changes and their real-data testing will be described.  Finally, progress toward a full 3km HRRR Ensemble in prior 2016 and upcoming 2017 demonstrations will be described along with HRRRE likely contribution to strengthening of weather guidance for variable generation.